Tour de France Preview

2010's edition of the event is the 100th anniversary of the first inclusion of the Pyreneean climbs in 1910. This was an important development turning the race into the extraordinary challenge that it remains to this day. In memory of the the first traversing of the Pyrenees, the Tour organisers have devised a treacherous route which sees the peleton summit the notorious Col de Tourmalet not once, but twice; ascending from each side in the space of two days. This will in all likelihood decide the Tour in favour of one of the climbers notably the favourite Alberto Contador. The Tourmalet is the site of one of the tour legends. Leading cyclist of the day, Frenchman Octave Lapize is reported to have shouted "Vous êtes des assassins! Oui, des assassins!' (French for 'You are murderers! Yes, murderers!') upon climbing the Tourmalet for the first time.

 

The opening weeks of the tour are one of the most interesting in the last few years. After a prologue in Rotterdam, the peleton tackles three stages through The Netherlands, Belgium and Northern France which are much tougher than normal being more similar to the famous Spring Classics of Paris-Roubaix (cobbles of stage 3), Tour of Flanders (winds of stage 2) and Liege-Bastonge-Liege (short sharp hills of stage 4). One of the little known but important aspects of the Tour is that the contenders arrive a little bit underdone in terms of their form. Its impossible to hold your best form for three weeks, so the main contenders for yellow often arrive in the tour a little short of their top fitness and work into form over the first week. But this opening week will require them to be at the top of their game early on which may have ramifications towards the end of the tour.

 

The first three stages give a real opportunity for time differences particularly the cobbled section with their reputation for carnage. The peleton will have 13.2km of cobbles on Stage 3 including the notorious Forest of Arneberg which is 2.4km of hell particularly if it's wet. A leading contender, particularly one on a team that does not specialise in one day classics (Astana, Sky?), could easily lose 5 min + on this stage. Contador will be absolutely dreading July 6.

 

The Alps are not too tough this year relative to the Pyreneean stages towards the end but Stage 9 on 13 July is a great one. Four major climbs including the beastly Col de la Madeleine. This will also be perhaps the most scenic of stages to watch as well.

 

After some challenging transition stages through the middle of France, the tour will likely be settled in the last week with four tough Pyreneean mountain stages back to back. Stage 15 traces the exact route of the original stage back in 1910 getting over the Portet d'Aspet  and the monstrous Port de Bales (both of which the Nevstar climbed). The latter is a 20km slog with the last 10km averaging close to 9% gradient.

 

The final key stage is a rolling 52km time trial of Stage 19 which is a real test after three tough weeks in the saddle.

 

Yellow Jersey - Contador is the hot favourite and rightly so with four Grand Tour wins in his last four attempts. The defending Champ is the worlds best climber and probably in the Top 5 in time trialling. His major weakness is his Astana team which is short of world class talent meaning he will likely be isolated in the key mountain stages. He may also lose time in the first week if he cannot get over the cobbles in good shape. But even if he loses five minutes, he should be able to make this up through the Pyrenees and be wearing yellow on the Champs Elysees.

 

His main challengers are Andy and Frank Schleck and Bradley Wiggins. The Schlek brothers are the next best mountain climbers after Contador but are noticeably weaker against the clock. However Saxo Bank are expert at One Day races and therefore can be expected to be on the front during the first week seeking to hurt Contador. Wiggins has had a perfect buildup focusing exclusively on the Tour. Sky have selected a team 100% devoted to Wiggins (hence no Greg Henderson) which will help him through the mountains. If he can stay with the big boys in the Pyrenees he is a phenomenal time trialist and so the final time trial could well be to his advantage.

 

Outside chances are Ronan Kreuziger from Liquigas, Robert Gesnik from Rabobank and perhaps Cadel Evans (although he had a tough Giro d'Italia). And keep an eye out for Aussie Michael Rogers as the tough Australian has had a perfect build-up and has both the climbing and time trialling skills to foot it with the major contenders as well as a very strong team for the first week. Lance Armstrong, by the way, is not a contender to win the Tour de France although, as he is riding his last Tour, he will be compulsory viewing.

 

The Green Jersey will likely be between Thor Hushovd and Mark Cavendish with the latter favoured. The Mountain Jersey will be won by someone slightly obscure who will fail a drugs test sometime in the next 12 months (see 2008 - Kohl, Bernard ; 2009 - Pellizotti, Franco).

 

NZ interest will centre on evergreen Julian Dean who is saddling up for his sixth Tour de France. Dean rides for Garmin-Transitions and should feature prominently on the flat stages as the leadout man for their top sprinter Tyler Farrar. Unfortunately he will be the only Kiwi riding with Greg Henderson (Sky) and Hayden Roulston (Columbia HTC) both just missing selections due to team priorities.

 

So, three sleepless weeks await. There are few uninteresting stages, but stages 3, 7, 9, 14, 16, 17, and 19 will decide the tour and are therefore compulsory viewing.

 

Vive la Tour!!

 

Nevstar